Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5ee…7e47 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% $0
other 23% +$3
politics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 23% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 23% 0% -9.5%
all 31 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -9.4%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage454d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $28 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $59 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $28 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $56 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $29 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $58 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -47%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101K and $102K on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 24 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 23 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Patriots draft Travis Hunter in 2025? Apr 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 19 $1 $0 -5%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 16 $11 $0 -0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 31 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $31 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $31 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $14 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $14 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $28 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $32 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $31 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $28 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $28 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $28 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $28 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $28 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $17 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $11 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $5 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $23 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $28 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $19 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $9 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records