Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:53:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F5 0xf5ee…c070 crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+5%) realized +$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$46
sports 15% −$12
other 5% −$8
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +15.5% +4.5% 55% 55% -2.6%
≤30d 40 +15.5% +4.5% 55% 55% -2.6%
≤90d 40 +15.5% +4.5% 55% 55% -2.6%
all 40 +15.5% +4.5% 55% 55% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.5% 55% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -5.5% 52% -12.0%
15% -14.6% 52% -20.5%
20% -23.0% 45% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Gavi Paez: 2+ shots No 45¢ 50¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 35¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$13 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$10 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$7 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $8 +$6 +71%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $5 +$12 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +83%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $23 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $45 +$10 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$6 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 54m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $4 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 5h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 14¢ $3 5h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 28¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.97 · official $8.97 (match) · 95 history records