trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 22 | -57.0% | -61.1% | 27% | 18% | -53.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -61.1% | 18% | -53.5% |
| 10% | -64.8% | 9% | -57.9% |
| 15% | -68.2% | 9% | -62.0% |
| 20% | -71.3% | 9% | -65.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 15¢ | $762 | $1,292 | +$530 (+70%) |
| Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $99 | $1 | −$98 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? | Feb 17 | $230 | −$230 | -100% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 17 | $132 | +$98 | +74% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 19 | $115 | +$16 | +14% |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? | Jan 16 | $106 | +$7 | +7% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 15? | Jan 15 | $13 | +$2 | +15% |
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | Jan 08 | $109 | −$3 | -3% |
| Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August? | Jul 11 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? | Jul 05 | $51 | +$35 | +69% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? | Jul 05 | $116 | +$2 | +2% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | May 15 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Will PAP win between 78 and 80 seats in the Singapore election? | Apr 27 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will PAP win between 75 and 77 seats in the Singapore election? | Apr 26 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 13 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 09 | $31 | −$31 | -100% |
| Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election? | Feb 23 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Feb 23 | $50 | −$47 | -94% |
| Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 26? | Feb 13 | $94 | −$94 | -100% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? | Feb 13 | $153 | −$153 | -100% |
| Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Jan 19 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07? | Jan 19 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31? | Jan 19 | $150 | −$150 | -100% |
| Israel announces ceasefire by Sunday? | Jan 19 | $73 | −$23 | -32% |