Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5e9…b2e0 sports 166 markets active 6d ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$415 (-5%) realized −$415 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate64%107W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$124
14 days−$294
30 days−$460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$405
crypto 5% −$15
other 1% +$21
politics 1% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -39.5% -45.3% 36% 36% -39.3%
≤30d 166 -13.1% -21.4% 64% 49% -14.8%
≤90d 166 -13.1% -21.4% 64% 49% -14.8%
all 166 -13.1% -21.4% 64% 49% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 49% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 30% -22.9%
15% -35.8% 17% -30.4%
20% -42.1% 10% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$30 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$415
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses107 / 59
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)166 / 166
History coverage15d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 166 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 10 $46 −$15 -32%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $30 +$16 +53%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 10 $45 −$44 -99%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $30 +$25 +84%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $42 +$14 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -51%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $40 +$9 +22%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID - Game 3 Jun 10 $59 −$26 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $21 −$20 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $40 +$10 +24%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $28 −$2 -6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $34 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $98 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $30 +$7 +22%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $44 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 −$3 -62%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 09 $22 +$2 +10%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 09 $113 +$9 +8%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $5 +$1 +23%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $100 +$12 +12%
Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 04 $152 −$150 -99%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast As Jun 04 $71 −$49 -70%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $13 −$12 -99%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by 20% or more? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $24 −$9 -38%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by between 10% Jun 03 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 03 $98 +$22 +22%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $156 −$92 -59%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $44 +$6 +13%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $111 −$82 -74%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $22 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 02 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $158 +$7 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $139 +$41 +29%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $35 −$33 -97%
LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $39 +$7 +17%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $42 +$3 +8%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $17 −$17 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $83 +$57 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $30 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 37¢ $31 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 53¢ $46 6d
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 90¢ $46 6d
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 58¢ $30 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS - Game 3 Winner BUY Bigetron by Vitality 55¢ $45 6d
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W SELL CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 100¢ $55 6d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner BUY Atreides 49¢ $30 6d
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W BUY EDward Gaming Youth Team 63¢ $20 6d
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 30¢ $4 6d
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 30¢ $2 6d
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 70¢ $2 6d
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 70¢ $7 6d
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 70¢ $3 6d
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 66¢ $2 6d
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 66¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 6d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner SELL Saigon Dino 50¢ $49 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID - Game 3 BUY Dewa United Esports 51¢ $26 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID - Game 3 SELL Geek Fam ID 49¢ $32 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID - Game 3 BUY Geek Fam ID 50¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 466 history records