Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:57:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf5e8…9fbd
world · 154 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$10,375 +201%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$951 · open +$1,287
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,051
Realized+$951
Unrealized+$1,287
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions242
Markets (closed)34 / 154
History coverage10d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day341.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 242 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$691
7 days+$1,093
14 days+$951
30 days+$951
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 42¢ $53 $212 +$160 (+301%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $27 $203 +$176 (+644%)
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 5¢ 22¢ $44 $203 +$159 (+364%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $123 $185 +$62 (+50%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 3¢ 39¢ $14 $177 +$163 (+1181%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 17¢ $66 $174 +$108 (+164%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $27 $159 +$131 (+477%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes 1¢ 7¢ $23 $150 +$128 (+564%)
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 19¢ $19 $146 +$127 (+683%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 21¢ 48¢ $53 $121 +$69 (+131%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $58 $114 +$56 (+96%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 4¢ 32¢ $13 $114 +$100 (+755%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 15¢ $52 $112 +$60 (+114%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $121 $110 −$12 (-10%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $104 $109 +$5 (+5%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 2¢ 27¢ $7 $109 +$102 (+1518%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 8¢ 27¢ $32 $108 +$76 (+235%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $80 $106 +$25 (+32%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $54 $102 +$48 (+89%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $64 $102 +$38 (+59%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $106 $96 −$10 (-9%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $40 $90 +$51 (+128%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 20¢ 44¢ $40 $89 +$49 (+122%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 38¢ $47 $86 +$39 (+83%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $74 $86 +$11 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 13 $51 +$17 +33%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $17 +$43 +253%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 13 $100 −$50 -50%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$20 -63%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $152 −$100 -66%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $33 +$211 +637%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $202 +$807 +399%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 11 $16 +$25 +154%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 10 $20 +$22 +115%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $80 +$72 +90%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $28 +$147 +535%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $70 −$70 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $54 −$43 -80%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $56 −$54 -98%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $152 +$295 +194%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $41 +$137 +337%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $39 −$39 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $21 −$21 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $116 −$116 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% +$583
world 33% +$2,041
politics 16% −$54
tech 9% −$252
finance 1% $0
economics 1% −$43
sports 0% −$35
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 52m
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $9 1h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 4h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 4h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 4h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $44 4h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 4h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 4h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 4h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 48¢ $34 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +33.0% +20.4% 33% 33% +58.5%
≤30d 34 +17.4% +6.2% 29% 29% +44.5%
≤90d 34 +17.4% +6.2% 29% 29% +44.5%
all 34 +17.4% +6.2% 29% 29% +44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover341.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.2% 29% +44.5%
10% ← realistic here -4.0% 29% +30.6%
15% -13.2% 26% +18.0%
20% -21.7% 26% +6.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,051.00 · official $8,045.90 (match) · 3500 history records