Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5e7…f4de crypto 203 markets active 6h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%60W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$153
14 days−$147
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$90
sports 5% +$37
other 3% −$1
politics 1% −$10
tech 1% +$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 -32.5% -38.9% 25% 21% -26.4%
≤30d 189 -31.3% -37.8% 26% 22% -25.7%
≤90d 189 -31.3% -37.8% 26% 22% -25.7%
all 201 -21.7% -29.2% 30% 26% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 26% -15.9%
10% -36.0% 25% -23.9%
15% -42.1% 25% -31.3%
20% -47.8% 23% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses60 / 141
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 203
History coverage142d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions (58 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$5 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$5 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$8 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$4 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 696 history records