Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5e4…556b other 181 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%27W / 153L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$12
sports 25% −$15
politics 22% −$16
crypto 10% −$6
economics 5% −$2
culture 3% $0
finance 3% −$3
world 2% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 97 -0.4% -9.8% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 180 -0.2% -9.7% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses27 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)180 / 181
History coverage165d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $46 $0 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $109 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $47 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 16 $55 $0 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $145 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $293 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $40 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 15 $213 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $390 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 14 $59 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 13 $155 −$2 -1%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $243 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 12 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $136 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $557 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $168 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 10 $62 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $446 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 09 $88 $0 -0%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 09 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $192 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $56 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 07 $57 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $122 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 06 $111 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $276 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May? May 05 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $160 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 03 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $216 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $45 $0 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 01 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $215 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $239 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $63 1h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 95¢ $48 13d
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 96¢ $49 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $45 21d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $46 21d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $66 29d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $66 29d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 37d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 37d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $46 37d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 37d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $55 37d
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $55 37d
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 98¢ $55 37d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $55 37d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $44 37d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $44 38d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $47 38d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $47 38d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $40 38d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $40 38d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $50 38d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $50 38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $61 38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $61 39d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $43 39d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $43 39d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $64 39d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $64 39d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 91¢ $59 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.88 · official $62.88 (match) · 819 history records