Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5e3…2a96 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% $0
world 24% −$3
politics 16% $0
culture 9% +$1
economics 5% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 5 -1.9% -11.3% 40% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 5 -1.9% -11.3% 40% 0% -11.2%
all 26 -0.5% -10.0% 38% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage265d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $43 −$1 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $38 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $37 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $35 −$3 -9%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Nov 14 $26 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $2 $0 -15%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA? Oct 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $24 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 35% and 40%? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $43 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $43 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $39 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $18 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $20 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $20 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $37 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $35 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 51¢ $9 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 51¢ $21 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 51¢ $1 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 56¢ $35 24d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes $0 196d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 237d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes $1 237d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes $0 237d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes $0 237d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes $0 237d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes $0 237d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes $0 237d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes $0 237d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes $0 237d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes $1 237d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 238d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $0 238d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $0 238d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $0 238d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records