Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:32:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5e3…23c9 crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3468 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$533 (+7%) realized +$571 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day3468.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3468 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -14.1% -22.3% 40% 11% -10.3%
≤30d 35 -14.1% -22.3% 40% 11% -10.3%
≤90d 35 -14.1% -22.3% 40% 11% -10.3%
all 35 -14.1% -22.3% 40% 11% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3468.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 11% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 3% -18.8%
15% -36.5% 3% -26.7%
20% -42.8% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
108.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$21 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$571
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 32
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$235
Trades / day3468.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 35¢ 56¢ $68 $108 +$40 (+59%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 62¢ 44¢ $135 $98 −$38 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $219 +$16 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $437 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $93 −$18 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $142 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $168 −$58 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $130 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $117 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $403 −$13 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $227 −$27 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $115 −$20 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $369 +$73 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $368 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $178 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $254 −$16 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $216 −$56 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $324 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $195 −$25 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $416 +$71 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $144 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $352 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $184 −$33 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $415 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $234 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $114 +$17 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $340 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $81 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $292 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $91 −$26 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $411 −$6 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $246 +$149 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.80 · official $206.31 (match) · 3500 history records