Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F5 0xf5e2…1327 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,825 (-29%) realized −$3,810 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%5W / 19L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$488per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$272est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,694
7 days−$6,531
14 days−$3,844
30 days−$3,844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,859
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -65.8% -69.1% 10% 10% -68.5%
≤30d 24 -26.5% -33.5% 21% 21% -39.9%
≤90d 24 -26.5% -33.5% 21% 21% -39.9%
all 24 -26.5% -33.5% 21% 21% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 21% -39.9%
10% -39.9% 21% -45.7%
15% -45.7% 21% -50.9%
20% -51.0% 21% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +25% → late -78% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,091 vs −$489 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,485
Realized−$3,810
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses5 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$272
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage10d
Avg bet$488
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Under 22¢ 22¢ $500 $511 +$11 (+2%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Under 31¢ 30¢ $500 $492 −$8 (-2%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 40¢ $500 $482 −$18 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $511 −$500 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 24 $512 −$500 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $509 −$500 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $511 −$500 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $508 −$500 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $511 −$500 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $509 +$806 +158%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $510 −$500 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $512 −$500 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 22 $509 −$500 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $512 −$500 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $510 −$500 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $510 −$500 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $512 +$1,662 +325%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $511 −$500 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $509 −$500 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 20 $511 −$500 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $511 −$500 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $511 −$500 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $512 −$500 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $511 +$1,489 +291%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $307 +$1,121 +365%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $305 +$377 +124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $307 −$300 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $509 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $512 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $510 4h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $511 5h
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Morocco 21¢ $512 16h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 39¢ $509 16h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $511 28h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $508 28h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $511 28h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $509 39h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 34¢ $510 44h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $512 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $509 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $512 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $510 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $510 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $511 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $512 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $509 4d
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 25¢ $511 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $511 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $511 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $512 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $511 7d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $307 9d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $307 9d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $305 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,485.44 · official $1,485.44 (match) · 32 history records