Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5e1…d044 politics 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%3W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$2
sports 19% −$2
other 19% −$1
economics 8% +$1
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% $0
world 3% −$4
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 45 -12.6% -20.9% 7% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -28.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -35.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -41.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses3 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage223d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $98 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $1 $0 -8%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 09 $98 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 05 $1 $0 -50%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 03 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $1 $0 -33%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $96 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $98 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 27 $1 $0 -21%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $99 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $96 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $195 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $99 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $100 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $1 $0 -50%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 02 $104 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $104 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $104 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 14 $78 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 13 $1 $0 -50%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $106 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 09 $104 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $101 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 03 $106 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 29 $105 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 28 $1 $0 -33%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 28 $1 $0 -20%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 27 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 24 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 22 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 13 $105 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 10 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 22d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $98 104d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $98 114d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $95 126d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $95 128d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 130d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $98 130d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $98 134d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 134d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 136d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 136d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 136d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 139d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 140d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 140d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 140d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 140d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 140d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 142d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 143d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 143d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $99 143d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $99 145d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 146d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $96 148d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 149d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $95 150d
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records