Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F5 0xf5e1…5ad0 sports 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$123,109 (+23%) realized +$115,281 · open +$7,828
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%74W / 99L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,528per market
Trades / day50.9pace
Fees−$7,200est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$27,781now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$49,841
crypto 3% +$2,598
other 3% −$7,435
weather 1% −$2,053
world 0% +$5,865
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -61.0% -64.7% 18% 18% -70.7%
≤30d 72 -39.4% -45.2% 32% 31% -36.1%
≤90d 173 -3.4% -12.6% 43% 42% -16.5%
all 173 -3.4% -12.6% 43% 42% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 42% -16.5%
10% -21.0% 42% -24.5%
15% ← realistic here -28.6% 38% -31.8%
20% -35.6% 35% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$4,339) neutral
Persistence
early +35% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,492 vs −$3,069 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$27,781
Realized+$115,281
Unrealized+$7,828
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses74 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$7,200
Open positions8
Markets (closed)173 / 153
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$3,528
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $8,378 $9,189 +$811 (+10%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Paraguay 52¢ 100¢ $2,542 $4,886 +$2,344 (+92%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Paraguay 28¢ 100¢ $1,089 $3,886 +$2,797 (+257%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 75¢ $2,203 $3,372 +$1,169 (+53%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 55¢ $3,297 $3,209 −$88 (-3%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $982 $2,887 +$1,905 (+194%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 32¢ 34¢ $335 $350 +$16 (+5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1,126 $1 −$1,125 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 29 $12,051 −$12,051 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres Jun 29 $3,474 −$3,474 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 29 $95 −$95 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $560 −$560 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 29 $13,227 −$13,227 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $3,838 −$3,838 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Jun 29 $1,578 −$1,578 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Max Griffin vs. Victor Valenzuela (Welterweight, Prel Jun 29 $2,506 −$2,506 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 29 $4,251 −$4,251 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins Jun 29 $3,148 −$3,148 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jun 29 $833 −$833 -100%
Kings vs. Avalanche Jun 29 $1,651 −$1,651 -100%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $3,419 −$3,419 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Jun 29 $560 −$560 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Eric McConico vs. Rodolfo Vieira (null, Prelims) Jun 29 $3,462 −$3,462 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 209.5 Jun 29 $2,407 −$2,407 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-5.5) Jun 29 $1,179 −$1,179 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 29 $3,108 −$3,108 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Julia Polastri vs. Talita Alencar (Women's Strawweigh Jun 29 $1,822 −$1,822 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 29 $835 −$835 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Jun 29 $1,976 −$1,976 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Jun 29 $6,460 −$6,460 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Jun 29 $6,378 −$6,378 -100%
UFC Fight Night: JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (Women's Flyweight, Pr Jun 29 $4,339 −$5,068 -117%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $1,092 −$1,073 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $3,964 +$1,607 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $3,456 +$3,355 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $1,823 +$2,953 +162%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $816 −$816 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma Jun 27 $4,043 +$1,733 +43%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $2,493 −$2,493 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $3,116 +$1,882 +60%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 27 $1,499 +$5,865 +391%
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $2,511 −$2,511 -100%
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $528 +$140 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $5,166 +$1,722 +33%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $4,709 +$2,272 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $2,617 −$2,617 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $2,378 +$3,510 +148%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $546 −$546 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $1,522 +$1,478 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3,857 +$3,031 +79%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,962 −$2,962 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3,840 +$3,048 +79%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,944 −$2,944 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,817 +$2,071 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 28¢ $1,112 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3,297 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,126 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1,001 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 52¢ $1,532 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 52¢ $1,010 3h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,092 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $3,683 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $242 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $1,382 2d
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 51¢ $1,495 2d
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 21¢ $790 2d
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 21¢ $26 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $264 2d
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $1,962 2d
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 70¢ $1,322 2d
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 70¢ $627 2d
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 70¢ $42 2d
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 70¢ $1,812 2d
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 70¢ $44 2d
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 70¢ $16 2d
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 70¢ $58 2d
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 70¢ $51 2d
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 70¢ $70 2d
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Matheus Camilo 38¢ $297 2d
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Matheus Camilo 38¢ $15 2d
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Matheus Camilo 38¢ $21 2d
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Matheus Camilo 38¢ $6 2d
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Matheus Camilo 38¢ $3 2d
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Matheus Camilo 38¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,780.74 · official $27,780.74 (match) · 3500 history records