Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F5 0xf5e0…41a8 world 38 markets active 11h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,397 (+24%) realized +$3,342 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate68%19W / 9L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,063
7 days+$2,896
14 days+$2,635
30 days+$3,304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$796
world 32% +$1,642
tech 29% +$809
finance 4% +$93
politics 1% +$43
other 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +71.3% +55.0% 92% 67% +43.7%
≤30d 28 +12.4% +1.7% 68% 46% +18.4%
≤90d 28 +12.4% +1.7% 68% 46% +18.4%
all 28 +12.4% +1.7% 68% 46% +18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 46% +18.4%
10% -8.0% 36% +7.1%
15% -16.9% 36% -3.2%
20% -25.1% 29% -12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$84 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.38 per $1 lost it wins $5.38
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$2,172
Realized+$3,342
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses19 / 9
Open positions10
Markets (closed)28 / 38
History coverage23d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $361 $427 +$66 (+18%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 90¢ 84¢ $375 $351 −$24 (-6%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 85¢ 91¢ $312 $337 +$25 (+8%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $321 $324 +$3 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 81¢ 99¢ $240 $293 +$53 (+22%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 71¢ 84¢ $116 $136 +$20 (+18%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $133 $132 −$1 (-1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 63¢ 98¢ $77 $120 +$43 (+56%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 19¢ $181 $51 −$131 (-72%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 20¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $227 +$301 +133%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $232 +$391 +169%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $498 +$1,167 +234%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $190 +$204 +107%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $321 +$150 +47%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $377 +$240 +64%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $870 +$61 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $776 +$38 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $313 +$26 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $423 +$185 +44%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $348 +$237 +68%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $346 −$104 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $110 −$107 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 09 $128 +$66 +51%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $25 −$24 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $138 −$131 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $73 −$72 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $68 −$11 -16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 05 $160 +$4 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $322 +$14 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3,815 +$755 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $135 +$112 +83%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $218 −$180 -83%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $367 +$43 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $150 −$4 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $135 −$121 -90%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 29 $303 +$40 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $707 +$25 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $139 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 50¢ $138 14h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $175 15h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $322 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $378 29h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 20¢ $1 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $24 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $17 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $45 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $104 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $87 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $34 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $38 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $251 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $36 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,172.34 · official $2,172.34 (match) · 390 history records