Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F5 0xf5df…0f22 sports 96 markets active 3d ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,018 (+5%) realized +$1,026 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%49W / 45L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$140est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$283
7 days−$859
14 days−$142
30 days−$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,847
other 6% −$955
world 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.3% -2.9% 56% 56% -36.4%
≤30d 36 +20.6% +9.1% 61% 61% -14.9%
≤90d 77 +4.8% -5.2% 47% 45% -14.0%
all 94 +12.9% +2.2% 52% 51% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 51% -5.5%
10% -7.6% 46% -14.5%
15% -16.5% 43% -22.8%
20% -24.7% 36% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$148 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized+$1,026
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses49 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$140
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage193d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $87 $85 −$2 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $76 $70 −$6 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $97 +$283 +291%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $707 +$193 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 +$35 +70%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $140 +$70 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $64 −$63 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $158 −$155 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $1,303 −$1,296 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $359 +$96 +27%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $468 +$372 +79%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $170 +$135 +79%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $111 +$88 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $59 +$101 +172%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $29 +$76 +262%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $34 +$21 +60%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $162 +$178 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $181 +$119 +66%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $165 +$188 +114%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $181 +$85 +47%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $172 +$128 +74%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 06 $603 −$594 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $4 −$3 -79%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $212 −$75 -36%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $147 +$107 +73%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 02 $178 −$178 -100%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 02 $370 −$370 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $657 −$657 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $252 −$79 -31%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $542 +$108 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $653 +$129 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $82 +$56 +69%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $355 +$345 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 18 $158 +$156 +99%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tanner Boser vs. Gokhan Saricam (Heavyweight, Main Ca May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 10 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma May 10 $28 −$28 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, P May 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team magixx vs Team m3wsu (BO3) May 10 $36 −$36 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Daria Zhelezniakova vs. Melissa Croden (Women's Banta May 10 $34 −$34 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $47 −$47 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-04? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $31 −$31 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $64 −$64 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $32 −$32 -100%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $64 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $140 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $707 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $89 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $78 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $97 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $158 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $50 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $24 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1,303 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 75¢ $38 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 80¢ $40 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 80¢ $105 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 80¢ $101 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 75¢ $76 4d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 55¢ $468 8d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 55¢ $61 8d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 55¢ $109 8d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 27¢ $29 9d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 36¢ $59 9d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 10d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 47¢ $95 10d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 10d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Bryce Mitchell 93¢ $47 10d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 62¢ $34 10d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 55¢ $111 10d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Bryce Mitchell 53¢ $134 10d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 56¢ $62 11d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 68¢ $67 11d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 46¢ $63 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.92 · official $154.91 (match) · 294 history records