Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:23:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

F5 0xf5de…c4a9 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,362 (+20%) realized +$1,369 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%14W / 7L

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$238per market

Trades / day4.9pace

Fees−$52est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$838

7 days+$1,333

14 days+$1,333

30 days+$1,333

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-11.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-2.3%	-11.6%	67%	67%	+10.1%
≤30d	21	-2.3%	-11.6%	67%	67%	+10.1%
≤90d	21	-2.3%	-11.6%	67%	67%	+10.1%
all	21	-2.3%	-11.6%	67%	67%	+10.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-11.6%	67%	+10.1%
10%	-20.0%	67%	-0.4%
15%	-27.8%	33%	-10.0%
20%	-34.8%	19%	-18.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +1% → late -5% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$158 vs −$126 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$293

Realized+$1,369

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses14 / 7

Est. fees paid−$52

Open positions3

Markets (closed)21 / 28

History coverage8d

Avg bet$238

Trades / day4.9

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5	Under	80¢	92¢	$100	$114	+$14 (+14%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	30¢	30¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	38¢	30¢	$100	$80	−$20 (-20%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$101	+$33	+32%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$101	+$23	+23%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$657	+$343	+52%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$203	−$8	-4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$72	−$70	-98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 26	$151	+$34	+23%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Jun 26	$201	+$62	+31%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	Jun 26	$51	−$50	-98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 25	$403	+$110	+27%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 25	$607	+$361	+60%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 25	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$101	+$55	+55%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$101	−$100	-99%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$707	+$338	+48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$303	−$303	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$202	+$106	+52%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$222	+$104	+47%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$252	−$250	-99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$201	+$59	+29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$403	+$130	+32%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 20	$998	+$455	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	80¢	$101	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	75¢	$101	3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	SELL No	63¢	$97	4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	36¢	$98	4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	64¢	$101	4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	65¢	$657	19h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$102	20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	38¢	$102	20h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	36¢	$102	20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	81¢	$101	20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	24h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	44¢	$41	24h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	45¢	$10	24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	24¢	$51	27h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	81¢	$151	40h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Netherlands	76¢	$201	40h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	66¢	$101	2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	78¢	$403	2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	62¢	$607	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	3d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	76¢	$101	3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Colombi	BUY	52¢	$51	3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AND Co	BUY	60¢	$101	3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Col	BUY	9¢	$21	3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Spread:	BUY	30¢	$37	3d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5	BUY Over	67¢	$707	4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$303	5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	72¢	$252	5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$101	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.97 · official $292.97 (match) · 53 history records