Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf5dc…dec3
weather · 1314 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,829 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,824 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,404
Realized−$2,824
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1048 / 472
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions78
Markets (closed)1520 / 1314
History coverage37d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day63.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 78 History 1520 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,392
7 days−$3,383
14 days−$3,133
30 days−$2,766
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? No 86¢ 92¢ $77 $83 +$6 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? No 67¢ 100¢ $45 $67 +$22 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 86¢ 72¢ $54 $46 −$8 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 71¢ 78¢ $31 $34 +$3 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? No 75¢ 69¢ $35 $32 −$2 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? No 95¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? No 68¢ 70¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? No 96¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? No 64¢ 70¢ $24 $27 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? No 86¢ 92¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? No 67¢ 68¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? No 64¢ 100¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? No 71¢ 70¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? No 82¢ 88¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? No 76¢ 55¢ $28 $20 −$8 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? No 79¢ 80¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 88¢ 100¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? No 71¢ 69¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 86¢ 100¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 89¢ 100¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? No 88¢ 98¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? No 73¢ 81¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 64¢ 74¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 2 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 17? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 26? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 14 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on May 5? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on April 28 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 17 Jun 14 $0 −$13 -3625%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 5? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 28? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on March 29? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 17? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 4? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 7? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 26? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 6? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 18? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 6? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 19? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on March 28 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on March 17 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 4? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 15 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on March 17? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 22? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ma Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 16? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 28? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 23 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 2? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 80% +$230
sports 11% +$303
other 8% +$92
world 1% −$22
crypto 1% +$45
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $15 32m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $10 40m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $14 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 73¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 60¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $15 9h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 401 -69.6% -72.5% 25% 13% -63.7%
≤30d 1079 -22.6% -30.0% 63% 31% -24.1%
≤90d 1520 -16.4% -24.4% 69% 34% -20.5%
all 1520 -16.4% -24.4% 69% 34% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover63.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 34% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 18% -28.1%
15% -38.2% 9% -35.0%
20% -44.3% 4% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,404.08 · official $1,403.97 (match) · 3500 history records