Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5da…a91a other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-36%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$9
crypto 29% −$6
sports 15% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -37.7% -43.6% 27% 27% -43.6%
≤30d 11 -37.7% -43.6% 27% 27% -43.6%
≤90d 11 -37.7% -43.6% 27% 27% -43.6%
all 11 -37.7% -43.6% 27% 27% -43.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 27% -43.6%
10% -49.0% 27% -49.0%
15% -53.9% 27% -53.9%
20% -58.4% 27% -58.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +162%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 33h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 40h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.93 · official $9.93 (match) · 17 history records