Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5d7…0582 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$1
other 31% −$15
politics 9% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.7%
all 43 -5.0% -14.0% 23% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 0% -11.4%
10% -22.3% 0% -19.9%
15% -29.8% 0% -27.6%
20% -36.7% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage466d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $60 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $91 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $121 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $6 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 01 $2 $0 -2%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jul 01 $3 $0 +3%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 28 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 10 $9 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 07 $1 $0 -12%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? May 07 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $10 $0 -1%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $7 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $5 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $47 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $32 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $11 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $42 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 39h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $34 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $9 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $43 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $36 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $6 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $31 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $10 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $37 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $42 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records