Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F5 0xf5d6…b213 sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$811 (+12%) realized +$676 · open +$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$197
14 days+$161
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$191
tech 21% +$766
other 20% +$387
world 11% +$267
politics 5% −$283
finance 4% −$4
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 11 -24.4% -31.6% 45% 45% +0.5%
≤90d 30 -17.0% -24.9% 43% 40% -1.3%
all 43 +28.5% +16.3% 51% 47% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.3% 47% +3.5%
10% +5.2% 47% -6.4%
15% -5.0% 44% -15.4%
20% -14.3% 37% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +71% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$83 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$1,119
Realized+$676
Unrealized+$135
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage108d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 39¢ 49¢ $630 $787 +$157 (+25%)
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 21¢ 20¢ $355 $332 −$23 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $99 −$98 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $100 −$98 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 +$122 +119%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $402 +$301 +75%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $42 −$42 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $432 +$177 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $247 +$86 +35%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $299 −$294 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $122 +$76 +62%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 15 $96 +$196 +203%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $100 −$99 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 26 $675 +$28 +4%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 25 $100 −$4 -4%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 Apr 14 $99 −$99 -99%
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Como 1907 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 4.5 Apr 12 $97 +$95 +99%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 12 $55 +$47 +85%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $43 +$50 +115%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $101 −$100 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 07 $312 −$283 -91%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $53 +$20 +37%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 04 $154 +$99 +65%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 04 $67 −$65 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026 Apr 02 $410 +$631 +154%
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 23 $41 −$41 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Mar 23 $96 +$5 +5%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $101 +$49 +49%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $100 +$78 +78%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 20 $59 +$41 +69%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1? Mar 18 $187 +$9 +5%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1? Mar 17 $100 −$13 -13%
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 15 $100 +$100 +100%
Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 14 $100 +$117 +117%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $100 +$100 +100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 11 $98 +$129 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $81 59m
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $4 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $38 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 23¢ $45 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $43 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $172 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $8 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $13 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $6 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 40¢ $105 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 40¢ $3 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 40¢ $20 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 40¢ $20 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $153 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 40¢ $4 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 40¢ $20 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 40¢ $2 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,119.39 · official $1,119.39 (match) · 228 history records