Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F5 0xf5d5…d0a5 other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+4%) realized +$9 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 42L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 46% −$8
other 34% +$13
sports 8% −$2
politics 8% +$4
economics 1% −$2
world 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +15.4% +4.4% 29% 29% +2.6%
≤30d 9 -10.3% -18.8% 22% 22% -16.7%
≤90d 57 -3.0% -12.2% 35% 28% -8.0%
all 64 -0.0% -9.6% 34% 28% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 28% -4.2%
10% -18.2% 19% -13.3%
15% -26.1% 19% -21.7%
20% -33.4% 16% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)64 / 71
History coverage94d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-80%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +510%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 15 $2 +$5 +322%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during healthcare event? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "My Father" or "Fred" this week? (April 20 - 26) May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in April? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in April? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in April? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump's remarks not air? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? May 14 $1 $0 +50%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi May 11 $1 $0 +50%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? May 01 $1 +$7 +669%
Heat vs. Pacers Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $2 $0 +22%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Japanese Gr Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Bucks Apr 05 $1 $0 +19%
Spurs vs. Bucks Apr 05 $2 $0 +8%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Japanese G Apr 05 $2 $0 +9%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Japa Mar 29 $1 +$1 +100%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Mar 28 $1 +$7 +675%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 24? Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on March 25? Mar 26 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on March 25 Mar 26 $4 $0 +8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March? Mar 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 24? Mar 25 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or higher on March 2 Mar 25 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 24? Mar 25 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 2 Mar 24 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 24? Mar 24 $8 $0 -2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March? Mar 23 $5 −$3 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on March 21? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? Mar 23 $4 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 24? Mar 23 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on March 21? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 23? Mar 23 $5 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes $1 58m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? BUY Yes $1 18d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? BUY Yes $1 27d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? BUY Yes $0 27d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $1 31d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their BUY Yes 23¢ $2 33d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their BUY Yes $1 35d
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 14¢ $1 35d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n BUY Yes $1 35d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 45d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 45d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1 48d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 48d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 48d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in April? BUY Yes $1 48d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in April? BUY Yes $0 49d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in April? BUY Yes $1 49d
Will Trump say "My Father" or "Fred" this week? (April 20 - 26) BUY Yes $1 50d
Will Trump say "My Father" or "Fred" this week? (April 20 - 26) BUY Yes $0 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.34 · official $5.34 (match) · 153 history records