Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5d2…73c4 crypto 107 markets active 4h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$729 (-16%) realized −$751 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%41W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$310now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$195
7 days−$195
14 days−$195
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$598
other 4% −$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 106 -28.1% -34.9% 39% 36% -26.4%
all 106 -28.1% -34.9% 39% 36% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 36% -26.4%
10% -41.2% 29% -33.4%
15% -46.8% 24% -39.8%
20% -52.1% 20% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$30 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$310
Realized−$751
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses41 / 65
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage70d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $288 $310 +$22 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 −$195 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 18 $97 −$90 -93%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 18 $26 +$7 +28%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 18 $44 +$20 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 18 $7 +$6 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 18 $22 +$28 +127%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 18 $69 +$3 +5%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 18 $24 −$23 -94%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 18 $32 −$20 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 18 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 18 $6 +$7 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 18 $10 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 18 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 18 $79 +$13 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 18 $83 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 17 $13 +$13 +102%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 17 $40 +$10 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 17 $77 +$39 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 17 $0 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 17 $0 $0 -93%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 17 $11 +$4 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 17 $45 −$8 -17%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 17 $19 +$19 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 17 $40 +$25 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 17 $11 −$3 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 17 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 17 $55 −$45 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 17 $50 −$37 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 17 $44 −$30 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 0¢ $98 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 0¢ $103 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $296 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $97 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 67d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 67d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 67d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $0 67d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 67d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 67d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 67d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 67d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 67d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 67d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 67d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 67d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 67d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 67d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 67d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 67d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 67d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 67d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $310.41 · official $310.41 (match) · 669 history records