Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5d2…94ae crypto 167 markets active 2h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$356 (-7%) realized −$356 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate19%32W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$28
14 days−$29
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$194
crypto 24% −$98
world 18% −$134
economics 14% −$60
politics 10% +$86
finance 3% $0
tech 2% −$32
sports 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -13.4% -21.6% 36% 32% -20.6%
≤30d 29 -13.9% -22.1% 31% 28% -19.9%
≤90d 31 -18.1% -25.9% 29% 26% -20.1%
all 167 -7.4% -16.2% 19% 17% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 17% -18.6%
10% -24.3% 16% -26.4%
15% -31.6% 14% -33.5%
20% -38.3% 14% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$356
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses32 / 135
Open positions0
Markets (closed)167 / 167
History coverage632d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 167 Trades
no open positions (65 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $71 −$26 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$17 +316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$34 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$11 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +126%
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch Jun 06 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 03 $101 −$19 -18%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $359 −$30 -8%
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 02 $405 −$49 -12%
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local Apr 15 $1 −$1 -88%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Apr 15 $2 −$1 -69%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $11 −$5 -45%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 15 $25 −$13 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 15 $5 +$21 +418%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 15 $6 +$12 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 15 $2 +$64 +3199%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $1 $0 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 408 history records