Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F5 0xf5d1…cdc9 sports 386 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,046 (+4%) realized +$12,041 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%161W / 235L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$818per market
Trades / day32.5pace
Fees−$2,990est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$488now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 106d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$5,875
other 27% −$5,085
crypto 2% −$199
world 0% +$581
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -48.1% -53.0% 25% 25% -75.6%
≤30d 83 -42.6% -48.1% 25% 24% -60.2%
≤90d 303 +6.6% -3.5% 42% 41% -15.8%
all 396 +3.5% -6.4% 41% 39% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 39% -16.1%
10% -15.3% 39% -24.2%
15% ← realistic here -23.5% 36% -31.5%
20% -31.0% 30% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$963) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$775 vs −$623 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$488
Realized+$12,041
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses161 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$2,990
Open positions2
Markets (closed)396 / 386
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$818
Trades / day32.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Tunisia 49¢ 50¢ $481 $486 +$5 (+1%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 240 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $888 −$888 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $148 −$148 -100%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) Jun 21 $695 −$695 -100%
CA Banfield vs. CA Aldosivi: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,112 −$1,112 -100%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-03-01? Jun 21 $999 −$999 -100%
Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a Jun 21 $540 −$540 -100%
San Diego Toreros vs. Loyola Marymount Lions Jun 21 $555 −$555 -100%
Bulls vs. Suns Jun 21 $902 −$902 -100%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-03-01? Jun 21 $1,598 −$1,598 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2,149 −$2,149 -100%
Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,376 −$1,375 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $53 −$52 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $142 −$140 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $71 +$123 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $180 −$171 -95%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 21 $229 −$226 -99%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $381 −$374 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 21 $551 −$545 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $538 −$531 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $420 −$410 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,077 −$1,070 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $307 +$191 +62%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $149 −$149 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $544 +$420 +77%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $294 −$294 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $249 −$246 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $880 +$521 +59%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $69 +$79 +114%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $639 +$330 +52%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $96 +$52 +54%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $289 +$297 +103%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $27 −$26 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $363 −$363 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $408 +$350 +86%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $496 +$225 +45%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $494 +$40 +8%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $181 −$178 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $600 −$592 -99%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $204 −$199 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $201 −$199 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $222 +$349 +157%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $195 +$154 +79%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $459 +$621 +135%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $250 +$198 +79%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $419 −$412 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $939 −$9 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,032 +$375 +36%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 49¢ $489 6m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 42¢ $2 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 42¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $17 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $487.86 · official $487.86 (match) · 3500 history records