Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5ce…2382 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 718d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%51W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$4
politics 25% −$13
sports 8% $0
world 7% +$2
tech 6% $0
crypto 5% +$3
finance 4% $0
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
all 55 -2.7% -12.0% 93% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

718d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses51 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage718d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 17 $66 +$2 +4%
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? May 10 $66 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 17 $75 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? Mar 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will BP (BP) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 16 $116 $0 +0%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 27 $44 $0 +0%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 15, 2026? Jan 20 $50 $0 +1%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026? Jan 20 $56 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 3? Dec 06 $26 $0 +1%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 16 $69 +$1 +2%
Lakers vs. Grizzlies Nov 01 $195 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 03 $219 +$1 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 16 $22 $0 +2%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 22 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? Apr 18 $111 $0 +0%
Bybit insolvent before April? Apr 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Jan 10-17? Jan 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $37 +$1 +2%
Ethena crash in 2024? Jan 02 $39 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch a token in November? Dec 02 $56 $0 +1%
Will Trump tweet 50 or more times Nov 8-15? Nov 17 $65 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $74 +$1 +2%
Will Biden resign before the election? Nov 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 50-59 times Nov 1-8? Nov 06 $20 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before election day? Nov 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch a token in October? Nov 02 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? Oct 22 $52 $0 +0%
Will Biden drop out on July 21? Oct 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times October 4-11? Oct 12 $11 $0 +4%
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) 10b or more one week after launch? Oct 12 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times? Oct 12 $27 $0 +0%
Base airdrop by September 30? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? Sep 01 $108 $0 +0%
Trump posts 100 or more times on X? Aug 25 $108 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 6 times this week? Aug 21 $108 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 50 or more times this week? Aug 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will $BTC reach 80k in July? Aug 06 $20 $0 +0%
Fed rate cut by July 31? Aug 06 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Kamala drop out in July? Aug 06 $25 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke by July 31? Aug 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference? Jul 28 $25 +$2 +6%
Nasrallah remains leader of Hezbollah through July? Jul 22 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 24d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $66 38d
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 61d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 92d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $34 115d
Will BP (BP) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 100¢ $116 127d
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 152d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 152d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 3? BUY No 99¢ $26 195d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? BUY No 98¢ $69 214d
Xi Jinping out before October? BUY No 100¢ $219 265d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? BUY No 98¢ $22 312d
US military action against Iran by Friday? BUY No 97¢ $21 362d
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? BUY No 99¢ $11 404d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? BUY No 100¢ $111 428d
Bybit insolvent before April? BUY No 99¢ $20 457d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? BUY No 100¢ $53 474d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $25 488d
Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY No 100¢ $28 495d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $31 507d
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Jan 10-17? BUY No 100¢ $30 517d
Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10? BUY Yes $2 524d
Ethena crash in 2024? BUY No 99¢ $39 542d
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? BUY No 98¢ $37 555d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $20 563d
Will Berachain launch a token in November? BUY No 99¢ $56 569d
Will Trump tweet 50 or more times Nov 8-15? BUY No 99¢ $65 579d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 98¢ $74 587d
Will Trump tweet 50-59 times Nov 1-8? BUY No 100¢ $20 589d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.90 · official $64.90 (match) · 112 history records