Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:19:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5cd…e822 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$11
other 21% −$1
crypto 3% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% −$11
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.5% -39.8% 0% 0% -29.0%
≤30d 15 -13.4% -21.7% 13% 0% -13.9%
≤90d 34 -5.9% -14.8% 21% 0% -10.4%
all 46 -4.5% -13.6% 20% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -10.0%
10% -21.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage613d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will HEROIC win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $55 $0 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $55 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $116 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 29? Apr 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 09 $7 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 09 $13 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $27 $0 +1%
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 20 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $11 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $144 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,232 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $1,172 −$2 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 27 $708 −$6 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 51¢ $5 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 11d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 11d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will HEROIC win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will HEROIC win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 23d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 23d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 23d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 28d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 28d
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $4 32d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 33d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 33d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.50 · official $7.50 (match) · 280 history records