Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5cd…1f07 crypto 224 markets active 3d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-8%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%105W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$66
14 days−$79
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$27
sports 43% −$21
other 14% −$10
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -19.9% -27.5% 37% 34% -40.3%
≤30d 221 -12.6% -20.9% 48% 41% -18.7%
≤90d 221 -12.6% -20.9% 48% 41% -18.7%
all 221 -12.6% -20.9% 48% 41% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 41% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 38% -26.5%
15% -35.4% 33% -33.6%
20% -41.7% 24% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses105 / 116
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)221 / 224
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 221 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Vicenza: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Joel Schwaerzler Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Gambia win on 2026-05-29? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-05-29? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +220%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $1 +$2 +158%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $8 −$6 -77%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $1 +$1 +59%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -54%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +54%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 2¢ $1 2d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 10¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 BUY 40¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 92¢ $4 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 5d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 27¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 94¢ $1 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 74¢ $1 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 100¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 5¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 78¢ $1 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Connecticut Sun 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 62¢ $1 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 38¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 507 history records