Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5c9…d472 world 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 351d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate21%21W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$1
world 28% −$3
sports 16% −$1
politics 14% −$1
economics 7% $0
crypto 7% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.8% -1.6% 43% 14% -9.0%
≤30d 28 +1.4% -8.3% 29% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 85 +0.0% -9.5% 21% 1% -9.7%
all 100 +0.0% -9.5% 21% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

351d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses21 / 79
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage351d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $82 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $2 +$1 +60%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $34 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 -13%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $42 −$3 -7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $108 −$2 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $81 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $35 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $38 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $109 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $61 $0 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $43 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $123 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $205 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $62 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $246 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $179 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $127 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $52 −$1 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $194 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $35 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $35 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $33 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $33 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $31 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $4 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $34 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $3 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 4¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $25 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $34 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 85¢ $37 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 85¢ $37 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $28 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $6 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $34 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $34 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $6 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $32 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.34 · official $34.54 (match) · 405 history records