Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5c4…0926 other 183 markets active 2h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$95,427 (+6%) realized +$76,307 · open +$19,120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate66%115W / 58L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$9,133per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$232,408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,714
7 days+$785
14 days+$1,845
30 days+$23,048
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$53,521
other 22% +$20,938
crypto 9% +$968
economics 7% +$11,404
politics 6% +$4,548
finance 4% +$1,585
tech 1% −$151
sports 0% +$1,280
culture 0% −$2,019
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -8.7% -17.4% 60% 40% -8.7%
≤30d 27 +3.4% -6.4% 67% 37% -5.0%
≤90d 58 -2.8% -12.1% 67% 31% -4.1%
all 173 +1.5% -8.1% 66% 29% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 29% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 18% -14.0%
15% -25.0% 10% -22.3%
20% -32.3% 6% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$5,427) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,002 vs −$768 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$232,408
Realized+$76,307
Unrealized+$19,120
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses115 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions10
Markets (closed)173 / 183
History coverage217d
Avg bet$9,133
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 86¢ $106,986 $115,362 +$8,375 (+8%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $37,618 $41,556 +$3,939 (+10%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $33,984 $36,200 +$2,215 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $20,859 $21,789 +$930 (+4%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 68¢ 90¢ $8,840 $11,765 +$2,925 (+33%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 73¢ 88¢ $2,933 $3,516 +$583 (+20%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $1,880 $1,984 +$104 (+6%)
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 42¢ 53¢ $187 $236 +$49 (+26%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 71¢ 78¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 77¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $11,453 −$5,830 -51%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $875 +$125 +14%
Will Brooklyn Pickleball Team finish in 1st place at the Major League Jun 20 $55 −$9 -16%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $5,715 +$1,943 +34%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $1,050 +$449 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $8,187 +$608 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10,890 +$4,110 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $23,247 +$1,967 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 17 $886 −$637 -72%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $23,215 −$1,940 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,600 +$400 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $61 +$39 +64%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $930 −$43 -5%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $7,658 +$534 +7%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $870 +$130 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $1,200 +$300 +25%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $145,375 +$777 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $48,445 +$8,701 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $25,725 +$1,775 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $74,517 +$5,726 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 31 $41,883 +$4,371 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $2,040 −$360 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $6,665 −$442 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $10,811 −$103 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $3,345 −$19 -1%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 24 $270 +$60 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $5,004 +$417 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $233 −$4 -2%
Chirayu Rana sued? May 07 $9 −$2 -19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 07 $28,677 +$6,788 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $1,540 +$120 +8%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 05 $857 −$857 -100%
Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $20,064 +$952 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $105,126 +$7,737 +7%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 30 $4,696 +$1,766 +38%
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 30 $3,314 +$434 +13%
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 30 $2,096 +$20 +1%
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $11,023 +$303 +3%
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $54 +$5 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $1,200 −$938 -78%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $2,020 −$128 -6%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $12,620 +$180 +1%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 22 $1,183 +$117 +10%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 21 $5,592 +$1,280 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $1,745 −$120 -7%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 19 $72 −$72 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $10,445 +$329 +3%
Will Iran strike Oman again in March? Apr 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Apr 09 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $782 1h
Will Brooklyn Pickleball Team finish in 1st place at the Major League SELL Yes 2¢ $1 44h
Will Brooklyn Pickleball Team finish in 1st place at the Major League SELL Yes 30¢ $22 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 88¢ $206 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 88¢ $473 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 88¢ $196 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $750 2d
Will Brooklyn Pickleball Team finish in 1st place at the Major League SELL Yes 30¢ $18 2d
Will Brooklyn Pickleball Team finish in 1st place at the Major League SELL Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,575 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $14 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,111 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $865 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $315 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,260 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $826 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $4 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $13 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $448 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $85 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $50 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $14 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $1,261 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $497 3d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $7,594 3d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $63 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $3,083 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,641 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232,407.76 · official $232,406.98 (match) · 2505 history records