Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:09:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf5c1…0101
crypto · 501 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
−$3,861 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,869 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$303
Realized−$3,869
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses256 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)499 / 501
History coverage690d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 2 History 499 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $217 $223 +$6 (+3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 11AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $219 $0 −$219 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw? No 29¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will UD Almería vs. FC Andorra end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-12-30? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? No 4¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw? No 23¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $325 $0 −$325 (-100%)
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-02-07? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will PSV win on 2026-02-13? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $60 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $11 +$5 +45%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $78 +$122 +156%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $225 −$63 -28%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-02-27? Feb 28 $62 +$16 +25%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw? Feb 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $126 +$43 +34%
FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5 Feb 27 $21 +$9 +41%
St. Brieuc: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Titouan Droguet Feb 27 $239 −$157 -66%
Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $126 +$64 +51%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $54 +$46 +85%
Chile Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Vilius Gaubas Feb 27 $34 +$16 +47%
Will RNK Veres Rivne win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $0 $0 -7%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. RNK Veres Rivne: Both Teams to Score Feb 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-02-26? Feb 27 $304 +$53 +18%
Will FC Lausanne-Sport win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $18 −$12 -68%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Both Teams to Score Feb 26 $21 +$9 +45%
KRC Genk vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 3.5 Feb 26 $49 +$16 +34%
KRC Genk vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 4.5 Feb 26 $25 −$25 -100%
KRC Genk vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: Both Teams to Score Feb 26 $16 +$13 +82%
Will KRC Genk win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $12 +$18 +150%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $8 +$62 +777%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Sheffield United FC vs. Coventry City FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 26 $12 +$8 +64%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $23 +$9 +37%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? Feb 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $18 +$7 +41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $196 −$116 -59%
Will Sheffield United FC vs. Coventry City FC end in a draw? Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $3 +$1 +29%
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $15 −$7 -45%
Will Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? Feb 25 $264 +$2 +1%
Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score Feb 25 $5 +$5 +96%
Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5) Feb 25 $6 −$4 -62%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $9 +$11 +121%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Andrey Rublev vs Ugo Humbert Feb 25 $12 +$8 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -99%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score Feb 25 $69 +$31 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% −$488
crypto 37% −$3,685
sports 9% +$625
world 7% −$521
politics 6% +$220
economics 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $28 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $30 1h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $74 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $80 2d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $290 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.9% -13.0% 55% 55% -9.9%
≤30d 11 -3.9% -13.0% 55% 55% -9.9%
≤90d 12 +9.5% -0.9% 58% 58% +45.5%
all 499 -10.2% -18.8% 51% 32% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 32% -16.3%
10% -26.6% 26% -24.3%
15% -33.7% 21% -31.6%
20% -40.2% 16% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.95 · official $302.95 (match) · 2227 history records