Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F5 0xf5bc…2c49 crypto 572 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$216 (+0%) realized +$225 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%199W / 439L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$452per market
Trades / day47.1pace
Fees−$982est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$5,740
finance 22% −$8,739
politics 20% +$8,458
sports 19% −$4,465
other 0% −$195
tech 0% −$50
weather 0% −$16
world 0% −$24
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -1.4% -10.8% 9% 8% -81.6%
≤30d 289 -4.3% -13.4% 24% 22% -31.1%
≤90d 638 -9.6% -18.2% 31% 29% -17.1%
all 638 -9.6% -18.2% 31% 29% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 29% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 29% -25.1%
15% -33.2% 27% -32.3%
20% -39.7% 25% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$519 vs −$270 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$225
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses199 / 439
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$982
Open positions5
Markets (closed)638 / 572
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$452
Trades / day47.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 638 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 9¢ 8¢ $120 $113 −$7 (-6%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Down 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 343 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Jun 15 $45 +$728 +1608%
US currency with Trump signature issued by April 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $368 −$368 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$276 +1276%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2? Jun 15 $1,926 −$1,926 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $406 −$406 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $230 −$230 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 30? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $541 −$541 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1,028 −$1,028 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $504 −$504 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Jun 15 $36 +$7,964 +21895%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Jun 15 $6 −$171 -2849%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $806 −$806 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$142 -352%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $342 −$342 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $165 +$548 +332%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $370 −$370 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $611 −$301 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $479 −$479 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $480 −$480 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 28m
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 0¢ $1 30m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $72 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $51 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 34h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $13 34h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 35h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $34 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $331 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 35¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $44 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 4¢ $3 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 4¢ $10 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 4¢ $10 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 4¢ $0 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 4¢ $10 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 4¢ $29 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 4¢ $3 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 4¢ $10 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $43 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.32 · official $120.34 (match) · 3500 history records