Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5bb…bdb8 world 1019 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$189 (+1%) realized +$149 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate23%171W / 586L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$6,497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$346
7 days+$262
14 days+$413
30 days+$718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$346
other 12% −$71
politics 10% +$438
tech 5% −$334
sports 1% −$8
economics 1% +$50
weather 0% −$42
finance 0% −$31
culture 0% −$19
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +4.5% -5.5% 40% 33% +17.7%
≤30d 222 -11.9% -20.3% 26% 23% +6.0%
≤90d 575 -20.2% -27.8% 22% 20% -1.6%
all 757 -26.9% -33.9% 23% 20% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 20% -8.4%
10% -40.2% 17% -17.1%
15% -46.0% 15% -25.1%
20% -51.3% 12% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$9 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$6,497
Realized+$149
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses171 / 586
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions262
Markets (closed)757 / 1019
History coverage160d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 262 History 757 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 38¢ 72¢ $300 $579 +$279 (+93%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 52¢ $500 $527 +$27 (+5%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? No 62¢ 62¢ $400 $405 +$5 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 30¢ 30¢ $400 $400 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 79¢ 84¢ $250 $264 +$14 (+6%)
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? No 80¢ 82¢ $250 $259 +$9 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 99¢ $150 $230 +$80 (+53%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? No 83¢ 92¢ $200 $224 +$24 (+12%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? No 76¢ 82¢ $150 $161 +$11 (+8%)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? No 63¢ 50¢ $200 $158 −$42 (-21%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? Yes 50¢ 69¢ $100 $138 +$38 (+38%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 72¢ 98¢ $100 $136 +$36 (+36%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No 46¢ 56¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30? No 82¢ 97¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31? No 79¢ 89¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 89¢ 96¢ $103 $110 +$8 (+8%)
Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 82¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? No 81¢ 78¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? No 34¢ 22¢ $150 $95 −$55 (-36%)
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? No 73¢ 92¢ $75 $94 +$19 (+25%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 64¢ 58¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? Yes 39¢ 28¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? No 41¢ 30¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 67¢ 94¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+41%)
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? No 47¢ 60¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliame Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 29 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 29 $50 +$6 +11%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Jun 29 $50 +$7 +15%
Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30? Jun 29 $30 +$4 +15%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $3 +$23 +745%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $25 +$7 +28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 29 $170 +$14 +8%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 29 $50 +$7 +14%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 29 $211 +$286 +136%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$28 +550%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $80 −$29 -36%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 23 $8 +$25 +316%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 21 $3 +$9 +305%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $36 +$31 +87%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $80 +$134 +168%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$30 +982%
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 +$40 +405%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 18m
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliam BUY Yes 69¢ $51 25m
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliame SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26m
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 9¢ $3 28m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 BUY No 38¢ $10 28m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 8¢ $3 29m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 21¢ $11 29m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $50 30m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $5 34m
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $50 36m
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 41m
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 42¢ $33 46m
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 52m
Will Malaysia recognize Israel by December 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 53m
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 56m
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the BUY Yes 1¢ $1 58m
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the e BUY Yes 8¢ $3 58m
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the BUY Yes 1¢ $1 58m
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 59m
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $58 1h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $50 1h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30? SELL No 54¢ $18 1h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30? BUY No 69¢ $50 1h
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $56 1h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? BUY No 72¢ $50 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $400 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? BUY No 82¢ $50 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,496.75 · official $6,495.52 (match) · 2299 history records