trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -4.3% | -13.5% | 50% | 0% | -16.6% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 75% | 0% | -13.5% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -7.9% | -16.7% | 38% | 0% | -10.7% |
| all | 25 | +29.7% | +17.3% | 56% | 12% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +17.3% | 12% | -9.4% |
| 10% | +6.1% | 12% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -4.2% | 12% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -13.6% | 12% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $32 | $32 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 24 | $95 | −$11 | -11% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 24 | $31 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 27 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 26 | $20 | +$2 | +8% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 26 | $15 | −$1 | -9% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 25 | $75 | $0 | -0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | May 24 | $29 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 23 | $41 | −$1 | -2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 23 | $43 | +$4 | +9% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 21 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 21 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 20 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 18 | $38 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 18 | $11 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jun 25 | $0 | $0 | +700% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 31 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 24 | $2 | +$1 | +54% |
| Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 19 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 700-724 times March 7-14? | Mar 10 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | Mar 06 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| UT Martin vs. Tennessee Tech | Mar 04 | $14 | $0 | -2% |
| Timberwolves vs. Hornets | Mar 04 | $17 | −$3 | -20% |
| Marshall vs. Old Dominion | Mar 04 | $8 | +$8 | +100% |