Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:02:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5b9…da59 crypto 1424 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$925 (-1%) realized −$926 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1406W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day93.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days−$625
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$392
other 7% −$232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 1425 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 1425 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -10.0%
all 1425 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 0% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$93 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$404
Realized−$926
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1406 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1425 / 1424
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$85
Trades / day93.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $403 $404 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $94 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $44 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $42 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $56 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $56 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $29 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $29 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $94 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $13 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 7m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $403 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 14m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $44 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $53 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $31 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $70 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $42 38m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 42m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $52 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $32 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.49 · official $403.77 (match) · 3500 history records