Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5b5…2394 sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 708d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$124 (+4%) realized +$123 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate62%29W / 18L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$136
14 days+$136
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$113
sports 18% −$1
crypto 0% +$5
culture 0% +$1
politics 0% +$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +0.4% -9.1% 96% 4% -5.4%
≤30d 26 +0.4% -9.1% 96% 4% -5.4%
≤90d 29 -10.0% -18.5% 86% 3% -6.2%
all 47 -20.6% -28.1% 62% 11% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 11% -6.0%
10% -35.0% 9% -15.0%
15% -41.3% 6% -23.2%
20% -47.0% 6% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

708d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses29 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage708d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT - Map 1 Winner GAMEPOINT 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bae Junho: 5+ shots Jun 25 $783 +$67 +9%
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals Jun 25 $857 +$43 +5%
Esmir Bajraktarević: 2+ goals Jun 24 $47 +$3 +6%
Amar Memić: 2+ goals Jun 24 $48 +$2 +4%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $48 +$2 +4%
Noah Okafor: 2+ goals Jun 24 $728 +$22 +3%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $47 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $48 +$2 +5%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +4%
James Rodríguez: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $31 +$1 +3%
Spread: Colombia (-4.5) Jun 24 $36 +$1 +2%
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ assists Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Gaubas vs. Mmoh: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
McDonald vs. Alves: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Gentzsch vs. Kolar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Clarke vs Pellegrino Jun 22 $19 +$1 +5%
Set 1 Winner: Acosta vs Galarneau Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 22 $3 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Apr 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs M80 (BO3) Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and Mar 06 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 5? Dec 07 $13 +$8 +61%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Dec 04 $8 +$10 +122%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Feb 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? Nov 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will a Republican win Maryland Presidential Election? Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win CS:GO BLAST Premier Fall Final 2024? Oct 16 $2 −$2 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? Sep 29 $1 −$1 -100%
2024 August hottest on record? Sep 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the People’s Republic of China win the most medals in the 2024 Pa Sep 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Taylor Swift engaged in 2024? Sep 05 $2 $0 -17%
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? Sep 05 $1 +$4 +426%
Will another golfer win the British Open? Aug 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT - Map 1 Winner BUY GAMEPOINT 98¢ $49 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 4h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 91¢ $46 7h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 91¢ $46 7h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 91¢ $46 7h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 91¢ $46 7h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 91¢ $46 7h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 91¢ $46 7h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 91¢ $46 7h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 91¢ $46 7h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 91¢ $46 7h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 91¢ $46 7h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 91¢ $46 7h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 91¢ $46 7h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 94¢ $47 7h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 94¢ $47 7h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 94¢ $47 7h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 91¢ $46 7h
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 94¢ $47 7h
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 10h
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 10h
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 10h
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 10h
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 10h
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 11h
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 11h
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 11h
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 11h
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 11h
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.98 · official $49.98 (match) · 142 history records