Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

F5 0xf5b5…be4b sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$93 (-17%) realized −$92 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$112per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-30.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-23.2%	-30.5%	50%	50%	-30.8%
≤30d	4	-23.2%	-30.5%	50%	50%	-30.8%
≤90d	4	-23.2%	-30.5%	50%	50%	-30.8%
all	4	-23.2%	-30.5%	50%	50%	-30.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.5%	50%	-30.8%
10%	-37.2%	50%	-37.4%
15%	-43.3%	50%	-43.4%
20%	-48.8%	25%	-49.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -24% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$54 vs −$101 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.53 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$100

Realized−$92

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$112

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage	Team Evictix	46¢	46¢	$101	$100	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo	Jun 17	$102	−$100	-98%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg	Jun 17	$101	+$60	+59%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$99	+$47	+48%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees	Jun 17	$102	−$102	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag	BUY Team Evictix	46¢	$52	1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag	SELL Division One	54¢	$52	1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag	BUY Division One	55¢	$54	1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag	BUY Team Evictix	46¢	$51	1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo	BUY TDK	47¢	$102	6h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg	SELL ONSIDE GAMING	100¢	$161	6h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg	BUY ONSIDE GAMING	62¢	$101	9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	67¢	$99	13h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees	BUY Chicago White Sox	43¢	$102	18h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.66 · official $99.66 (match) · 14 history records