Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5b5…2af5 other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate48%22W / 24L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$7
other 26% +$11
crypto 6% +$1
tech 4% +$1
weather 4% −$2
politics 3% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.8% -12.1% 14% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 14 -1.4% -10.8% 14% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 14 -1.4% -10.8% 14% 0% -10.9%
all 46 +0.4% -9.2% 48% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 7% -9.0%
10% -17.9% 4% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 4% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage478d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $41 +$2 +4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $39 −$6 -16%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $11 −$1 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $56 −$2 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Dec 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 13 $2 −$1 -74%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 26 $12 $0 +3%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 06 $5 $0 +4%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 03 $6 $0 -1%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 03 $2 $0 -17%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files? May 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or higher on May May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 29 $8 +$5 +68%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross more than $170m opening weekend? May 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 23 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 19 $15 $0 +2%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $6 $0 +9%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will Austria be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 16 $3 $0 +12%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $18 +$8 +48%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will Facebook implement "community notes" before April? Mar 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 28 $17 $0 +2%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 25 $17 $0 +0%
Grambling State vs. Bethune-Cookman Mar 03 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 4? Mar 03 $17 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $33 10m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $33 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $1 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $32 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 64¢ $39 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $7 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $8 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $15 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $39 41h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $39 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $20 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $16 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $33 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $17 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $19 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $36 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 140 history records