Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:25:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F5 0xf5ad…24a2 politics 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 623d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$115 (+0%) realized +$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate27%19W / 52L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 57% −$14
politics 23% −$16
other 12% −$6
sports 3% +$148
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +18.9% +7.6% 25% 25% -3.5%
≤30d 15 +11.3% +0.7% 33% 13% -7.5%
≤90d 59 +9.4% -1.0% 29% 19% -7.6%
all 71 +7.4% -2.8% 27% 15% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 15% -9.1%
10% -12.1% 15% -17.8%
15% -20.6% 14% -25.7%
20% -28.4% 14% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

623d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses19 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 74
History coverage623d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $113 $113 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $9 +$6 +76%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 05 $66 $0 +0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $242 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $11 +$11 +93%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $186 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox May 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $209 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $440 −$3 -1%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $216 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $210 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $222 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $207 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 26 $224 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $215 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $208 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $223 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $205 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $219 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $203 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $222 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $206 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $219 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $446 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 15 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $207 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $230 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $12 +$8 +72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $15 +$11 +76%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $10 +$9 +90%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $11 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 26h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 26h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 27h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 41h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 43h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $9 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $113 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 8d
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 13d
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 15d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 16d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 24d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $29 25d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $29 25d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $45 26d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $45 26d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 29d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 29d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 30d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 30d
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals BUY New York Mets 51¢ $11 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.32 · official $198.32 (match) · 363 history records