Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:44:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F5 0xf5ad…ff65 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$468 (-8%) realized −$468 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,139per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$530
crypto 22% −$1,202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -94.8% -95.3% 0% 0% -95.0%
≤30d 5 -30.8% -37.4% 60% 60% -20.2%
≤90d 5 -30.8% -37.4% 60% 60% -20.2%
all 5 -30.8% -37.4% 60% 60% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 60% -20.2%
10% -43.4% 0% -27.8%
15% -48.8% 0% -34.8%
20% -53.9% 0% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$601 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$468
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1,139
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 24 $849 −$797 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Jun 24 $424 −$405 -96%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $1,020 +$110 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1,810 +$202 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,592 +$218 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $52 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $18 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $303 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $416 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $534 8d
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South SELL Estar Backs 100¢ $1,129 11d
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South BUY Estar Backs 93¢ $17 11d
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South BUY Estar Backs 90¢ $1,003 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $1,158 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 79¢ $935 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $935 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 91¢ $854 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $853 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $875 12d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 91¢ $875 12d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 76¢ $738 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records