trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -34.8% | -41.1% | 33% | 33% | -39.4% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -34.8% | -41.1% | 33% | 33% | -39.4% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -33.6% | -39.9% | 36% | 36% | -42.0% |
| all | 13 | -26.6% | -33.5% | 38% | 38% | -40.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.5% | 38% | -40.5% |
| 10% | -39.9% | 38% | -46.2% |
| 15% | -45.7% | 31% | -51.4% |
| 20% | -51.0% | 23% | -56.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 66¢ | 66¢ | $1,000 | $985 | −$15 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 7¢ | $1,000 | $764 | −$236 (-24%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $500 | $573 | +$73 (+15%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 59¢ | 64¢ | $300 | $328 | +$28 (+9%) |
| Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 35¢ | 28¢ | $350 | $282 | −$68 (-19%) |
| Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | $200 | $141 | −$59 (-29%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $304 | +$280 | +92% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $203 | −$179 | -88% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 14 | $1,050 | −$549 | -52% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $101 | +$40 | +39% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 11 | $203 | −$200 | -99% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 10 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET | Apr 10 | $3 | +$2 | +52% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Mar 27 | $2 | +$2 | +80% |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | Mar 27 | $67 | −$67 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Mar 27 | $20 | −$18 | -92% |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? | Mar 03 | $21 | +$5 | +26% |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? | Mar 03 | $64 | −$1 | -2% |