Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:51:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F5 0xf5aa…4464 sports 1249 markets active 2h ago coverage 707d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 706d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,908 (-1%) realized −$1,907 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%649W / 595L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2,302est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$640now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 707d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$3,321
politics 1% −$303
other 0% −$348
economics 0% −$19
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +23.5% +11.7% 74% 70% -5.6%
≤30d 276 +2.2% -7.5% 55% 50% -23.9%
≤90d 1085 -9.9% -18.5% 46% 45% -14.4%
all 1244 +1.7% -8.0% 52% 50% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 50% -11.3%
10% -16.8% 49% -19.8%
15% -24.8% 46% -27.5%
20% -32.2% 42% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$140 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

707d coverage
Net worth$640
Realized−$1,907
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses649 / 595
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$2,302
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1244 / 1249
History coverage707d ⚠
Avg bet$167
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Marozsan vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $312 $300 −$12 (-4%)
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Grigor Dimitrov 70¢ 74¢ $281 $295 +$14 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $29 $24 −$5 (-18%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 36¢ 52¢ $9 $14 +$4 (+46%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 37¢ $10 $8 −$3 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $91 +$92 +101%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Jun 17 $510 +$43 +8%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $138 +$101 +73%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $1,278 +$401 +31%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $313 −$307 -98%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $39 +$11 +29%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $37 +$12 +32%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $27 +$23 +86%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $267 +$61 +23%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $200 +$159 +79%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 16 $76 −$76 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $19 +$15 +79%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $193 +$16 +8%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $122 +$61 +50%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $83 +$40 +48%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Kyrgios (+1.5) Jun 16 $342 −$24 -7%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Jun 16 $38 +$12 +31%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $134 +$64 +48%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $28 +$21 +76%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Jun 16 $38 +$12 +31%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $34 +$16 +46%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $108 −$107 -99%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $91 −$90 -99%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $708 −$700 -99%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $28 +$22 +80%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $45 +$205 +457%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $710 −$131 -18%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $679 +$421 +62%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $780 +$252 +32%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $32 +$35 +109%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $485 +$308 +64%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $265 −$263 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 +$10 +105%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $33 +$17 +52%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $17 +$15 +90%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $105 +$53 +50%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $808 +$206 +26%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $45 +$15 +34%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $29 +$18 +62%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 12 $35 +$29 +83%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $39 +$11 +27%
Daria Snigur vs. Robin Montgomery: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $702 +$84 +12%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1,237 +$282 +23%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $21 +$9 +42%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $192 −$191 -99%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $94 −$93 -99%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $22 +$9 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Marozsan vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 52¢ $316 1h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Grigor Dimitrov 70¢ $35 1h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Grigor Dimitrov 70¢ $249 1h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 58¢ $11 20h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Grigor Dimitrov 92¢ $24 22h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Grigor Dimitrov 92¢ $486 24h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $313 30h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 76¢ $14 31h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 76¢ $705 31h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 75¢ $494 32h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Billy Harris 49¢ $91 35h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 75¢ $64 35h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 57¢ $129 36h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 56¢ $8 40h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 76¢ $76 40h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 77¢ $39 41h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 75¢ $37 42h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 81¢ $267 43h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 92¢ $96 46h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 92¢ $97 46h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele BUY Jurij Rodionov 76¢ $38 46h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 53¢ $27 47h
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 67¢ $134 2d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Arthur Fery 56¢ $28 2d
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 72¢ $36 2d
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 55¢ $91 2d
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 72¢ $36 2d
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 72¢ $36 2d
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov BUY Franco Ribero 15¢ $8 2d
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 76¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $640.11 · official $640.11 (match) · 3411 history records