Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5a8…9643 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$453 (-18%) realized −$305 · open −$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day59.0pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,081now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$390
other 13% −$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-50.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -44.7% -50.0% 29% 0% -41.8%
≤30d 7 -44.7% -50.0% 29% 0% -41.8%
≤90d 7 -44.7% -50.0% 29% 0% -41.8%
all 7 -44.7% -50.0% 29% 0% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.0% 0% -41.8%
10% ← realistic here -54.8% 0% -47.4%
15% -59.2% 0% -52.5%
20% -63.2% 0% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$92 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,081
Realized−$305
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day59.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 62¢ 100¢ $300 $484 +$184 (+61%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 65¢ 57¢ $524 $462 −$62 (-12%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Over 49¢ 20¢ $300 $120 −$180 (-60%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Over 32¢ 4¢ $105 $14 −$91 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $204 +$13 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $439 −$79 -18%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $114 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $110 −$108 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $216 −$100 -46%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $125 −$76 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $63 6m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $66 10m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $66 10m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $333 10m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 21m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 25m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 26m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 32¢ $107 47m
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 41¢ $7 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 41¢ $98 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $0 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $53 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $59 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $204 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 51¢ $289 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 53¢ $71 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $439 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 39¢ $39 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 39¢ $47 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 39¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $74 3h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 19¢ $113 3h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,081.04 · official $1,087.22 (match) · 59 history records