Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:31:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5a7…29af world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$1
other 27% +$1
sports 12% $0
politics 6% $0
crypto 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.9%
all 25 +1.3% -8.4% 40% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 4% -8.9%
10% -17.2% 4% -17.7%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.24 per $1 lost it wins $3.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage454d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 17 $28 $0 +1%
Chiefs vs. Titans Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $29 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4? Dec 12 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $13 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 16 $14 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 14 $12 +$3 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $31 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $16 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $14 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $14 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $14 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $17 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $31 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $31 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $31 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $27 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $4 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $8 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 13d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $15 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $16 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $34 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $34 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $32 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.10 · official $31.10 (match) · 68 history records