Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:34:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5a6…e335 sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$94 (-24%) realized −$92 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$87
14 days−$98
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$158
other 8% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -16.2% -24.1% 43% 43% -39.1%
≤30d 8 -15.6% -23.6% 38% 38% -33.9%
≤90d 8 -15.6% -23.6% 38% 38% -33.9%
all 8 -15.6% -23.6% 38% 38% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 38% -33.9%
10% -30.9% 38% -40.2%
15% -37.6% 38% -46.0%
20% -43.7% 12% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$37 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage8d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 50¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $94 −$93 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$15 +50%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$59 +191%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 −$12 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $30 17m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $94 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $30 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $30 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $30 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 50¢ $88 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $100 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.78 · official $28.89 · 16 history records