Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5a0…b60f world 55 markets active 6d ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate49%27W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% $0
sports 27% +$3
other 25% $0
economics 11% $0
finance 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$8
politics 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 22 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 34 -1.6% -10.9% 41% 0% -9.8%
all 55 -5.2% -14.2% 49% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 2% -9.7%
10% -22.4% 2% -18.4%
15% -29.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses27 / 28
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage478d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $29 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $28 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $128 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $58 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $30 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $61 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $52 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $23 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $66 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $16 −$2 -10%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $113 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $381 −$2 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $13 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $143 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $264 −$5 -2%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $284 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $272 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $42 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 29 $9 $0 +4%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $2 $0 +8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $10 $0 +2%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 31 $12 $0 +4%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will Maryland win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 13 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $29 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $17 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $12 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $31 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $31 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $29 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $22 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $6 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $31 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $31 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $15 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $28 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $0 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $28 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 66¢ $28 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $30 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $28 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $28 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $30 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $30 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 15d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $7 16d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $2 16d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $21 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.76 · official $4.00 (match) · 206 history records