Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:46:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf59f…3be9 world 296 markets active 122d ago coverage 248d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 247d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$68,879 (+68%) realized +$68,879 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%154W / 143L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$71
14 days−$71
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$56,395
crypto 12% +$1,864
sports 2% −$450
other 1% +$34
politics 0% −$130
tech 0% +$111
finance 0% −$40
economics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 297 -4.8% -13.9% 52% 43% +41.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 43% +41.7%
10% -22.1% 28% +28.1%
15% -29.6% 21% +15.7%
20% -36.5% 15% +4.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +57% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$446 vs −$76 · ×5.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.28 per $1 lost it wins $6.28
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$68,879
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses154 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)297 / 296
History coverage248d ⚠
Avg bet$345
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 297 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025? Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 10–15 seconds by February 13, Feb 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $54 −$19 -35%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $43 −$19 -45%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $75 −$49 -65%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Feb 13 $44 −$11 -24%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 13 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $63 −$30 -48%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $70 −$32 -45%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $80 −$50 -62%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $115 −$79 -69%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $90 −$56 -62%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Feb 13 $54 −$11 -20%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 13 $1,031 +$20 +2%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Feb 13 $100 −$84 -84%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $100 −$55 -55%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $53 −$22 -41%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 13 $54 +$8 +15%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $70 −$21 -30%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in February 2026? Feb 13 $76 −$28 -37%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 13 $174 −$108 -62%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $70 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $100 −$35 -35%
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? Feb 13 $81 +$7 +8%
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31? Feb 13 $75 +$16 +21%
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 13 $143 −$31 -22%
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Feb 13 $91 +$100 +110%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31? Feb 13 $162 +$41 +25%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? Feb 13 $212 +$1 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition Feb 13 $268 −$26 -10%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by February 28? Feb 13 $211 +$69 +32%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Feb 13 $288 +$57 +20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Feb 13 $44 −$28 -63%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 13 $59 −$48 -82%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Feb 13 $40 −$34 -84%
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Feb 13 $7 −$2 -34%
Odds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13? Feb 13 $51 −$49 -97%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 13 $3,454 −$662 -19%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 13 $4,264 +$1,051 +25%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026? Feb 13 $120 −$22 -18%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)? Feb 11 $70 −$7 -10%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 05 $69 −$69 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? Feb 03 $328 +$72 +22%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $930 +$70 +8%
Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31? Feb 01 $61 +$12 +19%
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? Feb 01 $59 +$44 +75%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $1,151 +$210 +18%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $1,908 +$192 +10%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Jan 27 $1,947 −$808 -42%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jan 27 $1,510 −$250 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 10–15 seconds by February 13, SELL Yes 0¢ $0 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 1¢ $22 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 1¢ $26 121d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $33 121d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $34 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 0¢ $33 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 0¢ $38 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 0¢ $30 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 1¢ $36 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 0¢ $34 121d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $43 121d
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $45 121d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 1¢ $45 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 1¢ $31 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 1¢ $32 121d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $62 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 121d
Will Israel strike 3 countries in February 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $48 121d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $66 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 1¢ $70 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 1¢ $65 121d
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $88 121d
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31? SELL No 91¢ $91 121d
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $112 121d
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $191 121d
Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31? SELL No 82¢ $204 121d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? SELL No 50¢ $213 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records