Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf59f…b2cf crypto 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$425 (-10%) realized −$425 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%35W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$90
14 days−$91
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$424
other 33% +$43
sports 18% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -26.7% -33.7% 25% 25% +33.1%
≤30d 31 -42.1% -47.6% 26% 23% -21.7%
≤90d 74 -34.4% -40.6% 30% 26% -25.2%
all 112 -28.3% -35.1% 31% 26% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 26% -20.4%
10% -41.3% 23% -28.0%
15% -47.0% 21% -35.0%
20% -52.2% 17% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$425
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses35 / 77
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage92d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$23 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $14 −$13 -96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $75 +$148 +197%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $45 −$25 -56%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $19 −$14 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $19 −$9 -45%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $76 −$60 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$10 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $47 +$12 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$14 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$12 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $43 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $74 −$53 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 11 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 11 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $65 −$64 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Apr 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Antoine Griezmann: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 29 $5 −$5 -92%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? Apr 29 $3 +$6 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 26 $112 −$108 -96%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Game Hunters (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 26 $110 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 14 $205 −$3 -1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $77 +$127 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 14 $119 −$116 -97%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Metizport (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Apr 14 $100 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 14 $69 +$32 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 08 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 08 $91 −$24 -27%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 08 $16 +$9 +59%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $35 +$30 +86%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 08 $22 −$21 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $14 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $75 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Over 8¢ $20 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $36 6d
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $9 6d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 9d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $16 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $17 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $23 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $12 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 270 history records