Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf59f…b4cc other 50 markets active 1d ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1
other 34% −$8
sports 9% $0
crypto 8% −$4
politics 6% +$7
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 14 +0.2% -9.3% 29% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +0.2% -9.3% 29% 0% -9.2%
all 48 -0.6% -10.1% 31% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 4% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 4% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage300d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $82 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $87 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $47 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $4 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $9 $0 +2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Feb 01 $7 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $5 −$4 -81%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $11 $0 +3%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $30 −$15 -49%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $18 +$6 +37%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $79 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Nov 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 23 $4 $0 +1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $18 +$7 +40%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $10 +$2 +15%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 21 $23 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 21 $54 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $4 $0 -3%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 20 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 36h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $47 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $47 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $23 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $20 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $35 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $15 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $5 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.29 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records