Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:55:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F5 0xf59e…7183 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$188 (+8%) realized +$190 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$356per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$707
7 days+$531
14 days+$875
30 days+$875
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$757
other 47% +$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.6% -28.1% 40% 40% +14.8%
≤30d 6 +11.6% +1.0% 50% 50% +26.9%
≤90d 6 +11.6% +1.0% 50% 50% +26.9%
all 6 +11.6% +1.0% 50% 50% +26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 50% +26.9%
10% -8.7% 50% +14.7%
15% -17.5% 33% +3.6%
20% -25.6% 33% -6.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$417 vs −$125 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.32 per $1 lost it wins $3.32
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized+$190
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage10d
Avg bet$356
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $311 $309 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $152 −$150 -99%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $1,011 +$857 +85%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $156 +$50 +32%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $122 −$120 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $538 −$106 -20%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $199 +$344 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $313 35m
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $152 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,868 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 67¢ $47 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $160 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $28 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $33 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $6 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $128 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $100 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $100 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $287 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $1 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $120 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $206 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $156 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 51¢ $122 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 40¢ $208 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $224 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $131 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $305 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 36¢ $199 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.70 · official $308.70 (match) · 24 history records