Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:45:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F5 0xf59d…0130 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,072per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$11
14 days−$2
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-52.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -19.9% -27.5% 80% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 -31.1% -37.7% 69% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 21 -47.5% -52.5% 52% 0% -9.5%
all 21 -47.5% -52.5% 52% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -57.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -61.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -65.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,060) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -60% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$2,043
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage40d
Avg bet$1,072
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,035 $2,038 +$3 (+0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23? Jun 23 $2,031 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 22? Jun 23 $2,027 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $2,020 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20? Jun 20 $2,020 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 3? Jun 04 $2,078 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3? Jun 03 $2,075 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2? Jun 02 $2,067 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1? Jun 02 $2,066 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 1? Jun 01 $2,063 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31? Jun 01 $2,060 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 30? May 31 $2,055 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27? May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24? May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 19? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 17? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14? May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2,035 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2,031 19h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2,027 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $2,020 3d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $2,020 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY No $0 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY No $4 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes $4 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 13? BUY Yes $4 10d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes $4 13d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $5 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $2,078 20d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $2,075 20d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $2,067 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $2,066 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $2,063 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $2,060 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $2,055 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27? BUY Yes $6 27d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24? BUY Yes $4 30d
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22? BUY Yes $4 32d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 19? BUY Yes $4 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 17? BUY Yes $4 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14? BUY Yes $4 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,043.22 · official $2,043.22 (match) · 35 history records