Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf59d…8f85 sports 289 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (303 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$32,399 (+2%) realized +$32,361 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate100%285W / 1L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$6,264per market
Trades / day302.6pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$85,192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$17,476
other 44% +$5,122
crypto 1% +$17
world 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (303 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 203 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 1% -9.4%
≤30d 286 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 2% -8.8%
≤90d 286 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 2% -8.8%
all 286 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover302.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 2% -8.8%
10% -14.9% 1% -17.5%
15% ← realistic here -23.2% 1% -25.5%
20% -30.7% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$7,078) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$8,702 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$85,192
Realized+$32,361
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses285 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions4
Markets (closed)286 / 289
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$6,264
Trades / day302.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $29,970 $29,985 +$15 (+0%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 100¢ 100¢ $29,970 $29,985 +$15 (+0%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? No 100¢ 100¢ $23,820 $23,831 +$12 (+0%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $1,069 $1,065 −$4 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 15 $8,702 −$8,702 -100%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2,462 +$2 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9,681 +$10 +0%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $6,393 +$6 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,268 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $4,962 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $584 +$1 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $23,377 +$23 +0%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2,058 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3,201 +$3 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,172 +$2 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $389 $0 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,461 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 15 $3,380 +$3 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $12,352 +$12 +0%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $325 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $439 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $7,078 +$7 +0%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $8,778 +$9 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $29,970 +$30 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $19,436 +$19 +0%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $29,970 +$30 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29,970 +$30 +0%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,296 +$1 +0%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,370 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $16,769 +$17 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $104 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $177 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $29,970 +$30 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $210 $0 +0%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $524 +$1 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,936 +$2 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $16,096 +$16 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $290 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $2,649 +$3 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $736 +$1 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3,556 +$4 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29,970 +$30 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29,970 +$30 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $14,574 +$15 +0%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $29,970 +$30 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $223 $0 +0%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $4,930 +$5 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $3,062 +$3 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4,010 +$4 +0%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 14 $6,888 +$7 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $203 2m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $626 12m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $30 29m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $34 34m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $26 36m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $808 41m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $3 46m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $1,099 46m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $14,985 53m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $6,006 54m
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 59m
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $45 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $11 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $2 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $7 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $7 1h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $392 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $45 1h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $23 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 100¢ $6,180 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $1,129 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? BUY No 100¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85,191.70 · official $85,191.70 (match) · 3500 history records